Sunday, September 12, 2010

Primary Season Coming to a Close

The last primary of 2010 will be Hawaii's on September 18th.  Then Tea Party Elections will transfer over into full campaign mode.  Stay tuned for more in the final stretch.

Monday, June 7, 2010

From Perfection Under A Red Umbrella: June 8th Primary Preview

11 Primaries On June 8th ~ A Task To Sort Out by Melodie Kite 

What a wild year. I have followed elections since I was a child. I cannot recall a wilder year politically. In a year when Republicans should be happily heading towards the fall elections the Conservatives led by Demint and the other Republicans led by Cornyn are in a bitter inside fight for control of the party. So far DeMints choices have fared better, but the Republicans should be developing a platform, and not squabbling with one another. Michael Steele our own affirmative action choice seems unable to help matters and at best ineffective.

We will know much late tomorrow evening and on Wednesday morning, and in the following weeks will will know if the Tea Parties can hold their resolve to flip the house.
You can find tidbits of a forecasts here,
In recent weeks, Fred Barnes had this interesting column in the Weekly Standard,

Below I have used my two most reliable resources, and


Runoff - Polls For Democrat Nominee
Halter has a slim 4 point lead in one poll and Lincoln a 1.8 lead in the other. With any luck as I see it we can wave goodbye to good ol' Blanche! Arkansas is one of the states that should become a plus for Republicans in the Senate.


In California, much to the dismay of many Conservatives Fiorina and Whitman are wildly ahead in the polls, while two true Conservatives, and Tea Party Favorites struggle for recognition Davore (Senate) and Natarelli (Governor). To top it off there are the huge population areas of the San Francisco Bay Area and the Los Angeles Basin. Republicans are out registered by Democrats by 2 to 1. Given California's dire financial situation it is hard to say that anyone can correct what is wrong.

Fiorina RCP Average 5/19 - 6/6 -- 43.2 21.6 16.2 Fiorina +21.6
Whitman RCP Average 5/19 - 6/6 -- 54.6 25.8 Whitman +28.8

In Iowa Branstad is firmly ahead in the Republican primary for Governor.
Primary - Polls
Des Moines Register 6/1 - 6/3 501 LV 57 29 8 Branstad +28
Grassly should hold his seat despite his early treachery with the Healthcare bill.

Maine from
"Governor: Democrat John Baldacci is term-limited. He is currently serving his second four-year term in Augusta. Looking to occupy the Governor's Mansion after he leaves are no less than 20 different folks, 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats and, in keeping with Maine's political DNA, 6 independents. At this stage it is highly difficult to pick the nominees - much less the next governor. Polls don't help much, giving nobody a clear advantage. So, the preliminary projection leans left just as Maine does."

I can find no primary polling data for Maine.

In Montana, I can find no information, the Governor is not up for re-election, nor are either of the two Senators.

Talk about controversy. Nevada has a ton of it. As one of the states hit hardest by the recession it has more vacant homes on the market than any other. The unemployment rate is highest in Nevada, and the Tea Parties have different favorites, today in a rare departure, TPN endorsed Tarkanian, other Tea Parties have endorsed Angle, and both have surpassed Lowden recently in the polls. Earlier in the year all were well ahead of the weasel Harry Reid. In the last few weeks Angle has pulled ahead, and in a heads up poll leads Reid by 4 points. Reid has a campaign chest of some 9 million bucks so no matter who challenges him this weasel will need to run through all of his lives and with any luck we will be able to say "poof" goes the Weasel this fall

Primary - Polls
Senate RCP Average 5/31 - 6/3 -- 33.0 24.7 24.3 Angle +8.3
Governor RCP Average 5/31 - 6/3 -- 47.3 28.3 Sandoval +19.0

New Jersey
New Jersey who we all grew to love and heaped tons of praise on elected on of the most exciting and straight speaking governors in years. Neither Senate seat is up for reelection, and I could find no data on the Congressional races, let us hope that Christie has some magic and some coattails.

North Dakota

05/19/10 Rasmussen Reports Hoeven 72% - Potter 23%


05/27/10 Larry Sabato Pundit Change: Toss-up to Lean GOP
05/20/10 Rasmussen Reports Berg 52% - Pomeroy 43%
05/21/10 RATING CHANGE: Weak Pomeroy to Weak Berg
05/15/10 CQ Politics Pundit Change: Lean DEM to Toss-up

South Carolina

Primary - Polls


05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) DeMint 49% - Rawl 30%


05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Haley 45% - Rex 36%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) McMaster 42% - Rex 36%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Barrett 38% - Rex 36%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Rex 40% - Bauer 38%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Haley 44% - Rex 34%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) McMaster 43% - Sheheen 36%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Barrett 43% - Sheheen 33%

05/15/10 CQ Politics Pundit Change: Likely GOP to Safe GOP

05/23/10 Public Opinion (R) Spratt 43% - Mulvaney 41%

South Dakota


05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Knuppe 47% - Heidepriem 34%
05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Munsterman 46% - Heidepriem 38%
05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Howie 49% - Heidepriem 36%
05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Knudson 49% - Heidepriem 34%
05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Daugaard 51% - Heidepriem 36%


05/27/10 Rasmussen Reports Herseth-Sandlin 48% - Curd 41%
05/27/10 Rasmussen Reports Herseth-Sandlin 46% - Noem 43%
05/27/10 Rasmussen Reports Herseth-Sandlin 47% - Nelson 43%
05/27/10 Larry Sabato Pundit Change: Toss-up to Lean DEM


The other fair state that gave us a big surprise with McDonnell earlier in the year, has no Senate Races or race for Governor. I can find no primary statistics for the House of Representatives in Virgina.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

Daily Briefing Discontinued

Due to lack of demand, the Daily Briefing is now Discontinued.  I encourage people to go to RealClearPolitics for up-to-date information on elections.

Monday, May 3, 2010


On May 4th, three states will hold their primaries - North Carolina, Ohio, and Indiana. The Tarheel State is solidly red, with Richard Burr ahead and clear sailing, but Indiana and Ohio will be important bellwethers for the upcoming primary season.

We have previewed the Indiana Senate race, where RINO Dan Coats is currently in the lead. John Hostettler is the candidate to watch there. We have also discussed the Ohio open Senate race. Thomas Ganley had been giving "green Republican" Rob Portman a run for his money and then mysteriously dropped out to pursue the 13th district seat. Now Portman will face open seas and can put his $6 million war chest against either Democrat Jennifer Brunner or Lee Fisher (Fisher is currently way ahead).

And once again, it seems like any time there is a serious challenge to a RINO, like Rob Portman in Ohio, the conservative candidate drops out; or the trailing RINO declares he is "Independent," like Crist in Florida; or even in the notorious House-23 race in NY, imperiled lib in Republican's clothing Scozzafava drops out to throw her support to the Democrat opposing the conservative Republican Doug Hoffmann!

Strange days, indeed.

We can conclude that establishment Republicans are not about to let a bunch of Johnny-Come-Lately tea party 'fanatics' jump on board and derail their gravy trains while babbling some nonsense about the "Constitution." They are going to scheme and obstruct and lie and do anything they can to prevent the restoration of limited government. That is why a coherent strategy to defeat BOTH RINOs and progressive Democrats is so vital.

In the House races, it will be interesting to see how the RINOs fare.  In Indiana, we have confirmed RINO Mark Souder (3), while in Ohio, there is the virtual Serengeti plain of Steven LaTourette (14), Michael Turner (3), Patrick Tiberi (12), Steve Austria (7), Jean Schmidt (2), and in North Carolina we have anti-war activist and perpetual nuisance Walter Jones (3).  More information can be found on the RINO Safari link on the website.

I am currently projecting that the more conservative the district (which because of the data and the nature of American politics we have to make due to associate with "strong Republican"), according to the objective Partisan Voter Index (PVI) site, the better the chance that a RINO will be thrown out.  Let's see if that speculation bears out tomorrow.

Reasoning as such, we can use the PVIs (+ is Republican, - is Democrat) to speculate the likely odds of being unseated in the primaries: Walter Jones (+16), Mark Souder (+14), Jean Schmidt (+13), Steve Austria (+7), Michael Turner (+5), Steve La Tourette (+3), and Patrick Tiberi (-1).  It will be interesting to find out the correlation and margin of error of this hypothesis tomorrow, and how it holds water over the election season.  If it tends to be true, it can help tea party activists strategize where and how to unseat RINOs across the country.  If it is false, we need to find out why.

Currently, this is what we know about these races. There is a dearth of polling on the House races, but we can use a proxy measure, and that is campaign funding.  Although imperfect, it is generally understood that money talks, and well, fringe candidates walk.  We can use OpenSecrets to track the following RINO races in terms of campaign funding (although often times the data are dated): Walter Jones, Mark Souder, Steven LaTourette, Michael Turner, Patrick Tiberi, Steve Austria, and Jean Schmidt.  Of these candidates, only three have serious cash-opposition: Mark Souder, Steve Austria, and Jean Schmidt, in descending order of seriousness.

THIS IS A WARNING TO TEA PARTY ACTIVISTS.  Unless you focus on a cohesive strategy to out verifiable RINOs, we will all will wind up with incessant headaches for the next four to six years.  We will be stabbed in the back more often than Julius Caesar at the end of the Roman Republic. We simply cannot rest on the laurels of a sizable advantage on the generic congressional ballot (from +1 to +7, depending on whom you trust; we'll throw the Democrat leaning polls out as obviously false in even average mnidterm elections).

The solution?  Support RINOs' conservative opposition!  I have carefully and methodically compiled a list of some RINOs.  Fund their opposition.  Cold call.  Spread names on the Internet and by word of mouth.  Don't let the red tide turn into a pink one!

If you agree with me, spread the name of these entries and the name of this site:!

Daily Briefing for May 4th: Primary Colors Set to Run Red

Today - Let The Pipeline Begin, The Big Red Tsunami Is Rolling In by Melody Kite

Today marks the real start of The Big Red Tsunami, Primary Season. In 35 days we will have the results of 25 Primary elections in States from nearly every region. And the preliminary salvos will be fired in North Carolina, Ohio and Indiana, bright and early.

This poll from Real Clear Politics shows a wide ranging set of polls as they are today before the real voting starts.

In a little more than a month we will have an idea of just how deep the Red discontent is and how many voters out there are willing to dip their fingers in red to stop the madness being pursued by the 111th Congress.

The projections are all over the place, from what appears a sure 30 seats to a hopeful 120 seat change in the House and a likely 8 Senators (which requires holding retiring Senator Voinovich's seat in Ohio), but one thing is certain, there is a real mood in the country to throw all incumbents out, shown by the most recent polling of Congressional Job Approval at a near all time low for approval.

Two races which have a delicious irony that any on the right can love are the race for the 12th Congressional District in Pennsylvania to fill Democrat Jack Murtha's seat left vacant by his death today shows the Republican Burns ahead by 6 percentage points.

And from the same link in the race on the 22nd of May to fill a vacated house seat in Hawaii, even more delightful the Republican Djou, is also ahead by 8 percentage points.

In this link, a story from NPR, House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, told NPR News last week that ..."at least 100 House seats are in play this year. Our latest ABC News electoral outlook puts 115 House seats currently in play and about 50 of those are highly competitive races."

ABC news shows just how deep the discontent is amongst voters, it speaks to how voters will take their fury out on the leadership of the 111th Congress, and the policies and agendas of President Obama's Administration:
"...The success of Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi's agenda is what we will give them credit for. And it is a miserable failure with continued unemployment, higher taxation and debt," said National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas at a recent campaign briefing with reporters where he was laying out the message strategy for the months ahead. …”

Be sure to vote if your state is one where primaries are held in the next 35 days, and the rest of us will curl up adorned in our Tea Party gear and red paraphernalia and watch the Red Results!

We will have a really good picture of just how bad the shellacking of the Democrats will be.

Daily Briefing for May 3rd: Democrat Delusion Our Strongest Ally

Democrat's Titanic Syndrome and The Rising Red Tsunami by Melody Kite

Too Big to Fail! ‘Unsinkable’

Democrats are either disregarding the iceberg’s of public opinion surrounding them or thinking the Red Tsunami that is headed their way will not reach their district, or impact their seat.

Since his election, the Captain of the US Democratic Party, President Obama and his Administration have been dissmissive of and have showing his opposition nothing but arrogance. Both the President and his Administration appear to the American public in polling data (as high as 70% in some polls) to be lost at sea in a fog of self-delusion and are defiantly tin-eared to the 'noise in the background', along with, the DNC chairman and the rest of the Democratic leadership.

It also appears that the the main-stream media has either an editorial blind eye or a tin ear to what average every day working Americans are expressing. The left appears to live in Wonderland, and from their coverage it appears editorially their decisions must be based on a premise of if they can play ostrich long enough and pretend we do not exist we will go away.

NO way are we going anywhere but to vote this fall, and to Tea Parties, Town hall meetings, and visit our representatives. We are all going to watch all those rats drown in their own hubris.

This movement has a big clue for them-- we will not go quietly down with the ship. We have commandeered all the lifeboats and socialist, mad spending hidden deal making traitors and sleazy liars are doomed to a cold watery death and certain losses at the polls this coming election season.

The signs are every where, even the media is starting to demand real press conferences. [Continued]

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Daily Briefing for May 2nd: Tea Party Report for Indiana Senate

A new poll conducted by the Downs Center/SUSA available via attachment at Real Clear Politics, provides some informative lessons for tea party activists.  The data suggest that what it will take to maximize gains for conservative Republicans in the primary season is a principled targeting of the middle, focusing on bread-and-butter issues like the economy, while de-emphasizing ideology. From the study:

Tea Party Movement
Respondents were asked two questions about the Tea Party Movement. The first asked if their opinion of the Tea Party Movement was favorable, unfavorable, neutral, or if they had no opinion of the movement. The second asked if the respondent identified with the Tea Party Movement. Favorable views were held by 42% of the respondents while 23% had unfavorable views. One in five (20%) of the respondents had a neutral view and 15% had no opinion. Although 42% had a favorable view of the Tea Party Movement, only 27% identified with the movement. The percentage of Republican primary voters holding a favorable view of the Tea Party Movement jumped to 78%. The percentage of Republican primary voters identifying with the Tea Party Movement increased to 56%.

Despite the anti-Washington persona of much of the Tea Party Movement, its Indiana supporters are more supportive of the “establishment” candidate Dan Coats than other candidates, including Marlin Stutzman who has been endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund which is led by Senator Jim DeMint (R-S.C.). The Senate Conservatives Fund has endorsed and attempted to raise money for conservative candidates against more moderate establishment Republicans. Just over a third of those voters viewing the Tea Party Movement favorably (34%) were supporting Coats with 21% supporting Hostettler and 20% supporting Stutzman.

Among Republican primary voters identifying with The Tea Party Movement, Coats lost some of his support, but still has the plurality at 30% with 23% supporting Stutzman and 21% supporting Hostettler.

The polling, carried out by two professors, has the establishment candidate Coats up by 12 points.  The bane of our existence is the "Independents leaning Republican" demographic aka those "mavericks" who think that John McCain is a conservative because the media outlets keep telling them so.

That being said, nearly four out of five Republican primary voters hold favorable views of the tea party movement.  Those who self-identify with the tea party movement is just over half, however, at 56%.

This suggests that the tea party movement can win over many more voters by sticking to core issues like the economy, rather than more obscure issues like Obama's "communism" or the birth certificate issue.  These are legitimate issues, but they are not going to win any "Independents" on the fence over to our side.

We don't need any more RINOs like Mark Kirk (who does have the general election lead in Illinois) or Charlie (oh) Crist (who just defected from the Republicans; see Charlie Crist to G.O.P.: Drop Dead from the charming New York Times)) winning their primary noms.  We need men like John Hostettler of Indiana (see May 2nd story), who registered Republicans prefer to former Indiana Senator (and disappointment) Dan Coats.

We also need to convince the moderates that Constitutional conservatism is "sane" and not "right-wing."  The best way to do this is to keep posterizing regular Americans, in other words, the blue collar workers, little old ladies, and middle American kids who attend tea party rallies, as emblematic of the movement.  Pictures are worth a thousand words, and on the Internet they are a powerful force multiplier.

In terms of messages to the moderate middle, we should focus like a laser beam on common-sense economics.  The failure of the left's recent Keynesian experiment is clear even according to its own terms (remember last spring when Obama promised 8% unemployment by now?).  Government has contributed ZERO and actually represented a net drag on the economy's (jobless) recovery" in 1Q 2010, after hundreds of billions of dollars in government spending, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' recent report (See Table 2: Government consumption expenditures and gross investment; summary).  So the Democrats not only lie when it comes to the economy,  the government confirms that the Democrats lie with its own statements and reports. Such arguments are more persuasive to those "pragmatists" who think ideology is utterly irrelevant.

The media will continue to portray the tea party movement as "fringe," even infiltrating and planting their own "racist" subverters. We should not help the media by venting our understandable fear and alarm at the socialists in government. Our frustration with the disconnected "middle" cannot overwhelm our need to truly crush the leftist Democrats in November.

Daily Briefing for May 1st: Time to Remove the Pretenders in Ohio

Ohio Primary Precursor To Fall Election by Melody Kite

Ohio is ranked nationally as the 26th most conservative state, and voted for Obama in 2008. Demographically Ohio is 2.69% more Republican than the national average.

There are two Democrats running for Senate in Ohio, Democrat Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, and Jennifer Brunner. Fisher is polling well above Brunner, and will likely win the Democratic primary. Fisher is projected to to win the Democratic primary by a wide margin and will run against the Republican candidate Ron Portman who is running uncontested in the primary elections.

The race is sizing up to be Fisher-Portman match up, to fill the seat left vacant by Republican Senator Voinovich who is retiring this election cycle, and may well be the hardest seat for Republicans to hold this fall.

Ron Portman as seen in this polling data by Real Clear Politics only holds less than one percentage point lead against either Democratic primary contender and shows the wide gap between the Democratic Candidates.

This Quinnipiac Poll shows the current trends for the upcoming elections in the fall:

Polling numbers show the challenge that Republicans will face in the fall elections. The current polling averages for Governor shows Republican Tom Kasich to be one percentage point behind incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland, and within the margin of error in the race for Governor. Real Clear Politics currently has the race for Governor rated as a toss-up.

Election Projection gives detailed information on the current trends for all of the Ohio seats for the primary elections, and calls for a pick up two Congressional seats in the coming fall elections.

Obama has weak approval ratings in the state of Ohio, one of the battleground states, and Independents will have a large voice in this election. Their votes will be the ones that will tip the fall elections to the winning Party. 

All of the current polls reflect tight races, for the seats of Senate and Governor, and indicate they will be a challenge for Republicans to win in the fall elections. Both of the races at this point look to be a horserace to the finish. All of data at this point is reflective of the difficulty Republicans face in Ohio to not only reign in, but win conclusively barring any challenges when the election is over.

The primary elections in Ohio will be the first salvo in what appears to be a real fight to the finish line, as Real Clear Politics has called Ohio a toss-up for the fall elections.

We can only hope that the old saying as ‘Ohio goes so goes the nation’ does not apply in the fall elections.

The Republican Party, and Kasich and Portman will have their work cut out in the coming fall elections, and the Ohio primary will show where their time and effort should be spent.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Daily Briefing for April 29th: Mors ultima linea rerum est

Crist and Graham Modern Day Brutus, or Aaron Burr? But Not Our 'Favorite Sons'  by Melody Kite

Charlie Crist has proven his own self interest and has decided to burn those who have supported him in years past, by donating both time and money to his elections as a Republican in the State of Florida.

He has also decided to betray the Republican Party who have invested countless thousands in promoting his career.

He will formally announce on Thursday his decision to run as an Independent. At least he did not wait to wait until after he was elected and make his betrayal more vile by pulling an Arlen Specter stunt switching parties, yet another weasel. His early support of the Second Stimulus quickly indicates how this happy spender would show his fiscal detritus.

Every recent perusal of polling data in every poll shows him well behind any of the current contenders running for election statistically for the Senate seat, and nearly 23 points behind Rubio. A new poll shows him still behind Rubio, who lately has his own foot and mouth problems on Immigration.

Graham is yet another of the RINOS that plagues all of us with his continual waffling. I am barely recovered from his threats that were nothing but puffery when Holder was testifying to his committee in regards to trying terrorist in New York.

It was not until Reid determined that he would place Immigration on the docket before the current nightmare Cap and Trade Bill that Graham withdrew his support for the Bill he co-sponsored with his buddies John Kerry and Joe Lieberman.

Now Reid has pulled Immigration back, and will bring Cap and Trade to the Senate Floor. Either Graham has caved, or the Senate will engage the same ploy as they did with Healthcare, forcing Graham to either vote NAY or do his evil deed and vote AYE.

The Cap and Trade bill is laden with a nation-killing agenda full of not only fees, licensing, and taxes but also outrageous punishing policies that would be the certain death knell for America and her citizens, in every area of freedom that you can imagine.

Did Graham have the ethical courage to step up to the plate and say I cannot support this because this set of policies and future law is based on a fraud and cooked And his buddies are still working on him to get him to come back to the table.

It is a shame that Graham is not running for reelection this season.

The treachery of these two only is surpassed by that of Brutus when he slayed Julius Caesar and Aaron Burr when he killed Alexander Hamilton father of the Federalist papers in a duel.

The machinations and finances behind the Cap and Trade bill make the Tea Pot Dome Scandal look like child's play.

Editor's note: Brutus stabbed Julius Caesar for his imperial dominion over the once free Roman Republic. Aaron Burr, though not for noble cause, shot one of the most infamous statists in American history, as the work of Thomas DiLorenzo sheds much light on. Alexander Hamilton was a mercantilist and openly supported installing a king to preside over the American "empire." So my personal attitude to these events is "sic semper tyrannis."

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Daily Briefing for April 28th: Race and Contemporary American Politics

America's Post Racial President by Melody Kite
From American Thinker, ..."There is a danger in the Obama White House honestly appraising the Tea Party's criticisms: It may bring illumination to the consequences of their policies. And because, as poll after poll suggest, an enlightened citizenry would reject absolutely the continuation of said policies, such honesty would be politically suicidal.

Where the Tea Party openly provides its recommendations and cites its complaints, the Obama White House and its allies in the media take quite a separate approach. It is difficult to tell behind which goal they place the stronger thrust of their efforts: concealing their own agenda or wrongfully portraying the intentions of their critics."

On the campaign trail, Barack Obama sold a bill of goods (to those interested in his product): the possibility that this nation might finally be presented with the opportunity to rip through the ever-present and seemingly insurmountable partisan divide to achieve the Holy Grail of political discourse more commonly known as the civil debate of issues. However, now it is evident that he is actively pursuing an attitude of the very dissension which it was his stated goal to diminish.

Or according to the absolute whipping reflected in this in a series of polls from Rasmussen, which indicate the rising surge against his policies?

Presidential ratings, Strongly Disapprove at 52% 55%
Oppose Government Limits On How Much Salt Americans Consume·
73% Say It’s Likely Goldman Sachs Committed Fraud·
70% of Arizona Voters Favor New State Measure Cracking Down On Illegal Immigration·60% Believe Health Care Law Will Increase Deficit, 58% Favor Repeal·
58% Favor Welcoming Immigration Policy ·
North Dakota House: Berg (R) 49%, Pomeroy (D) 45%·
Nationally, 60% Favor Letting Local Police Stop and Verify Immigration Status· 80% Say Religious Faith is Important To Their Daily Lives·

Michigan GOP Primary for Governor: Hoekstra Still Ahead·
Michigan Governor: Republican 41%, Democrat 36%·
South Dakota Governor: Daugaard (R) 53%, Heidepriem (D) 33%·
Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 44%, Democrats 38%

He is soon to find out that his brand of change is not what millions of Americans cast their ballot for particularly that rare breed of mavericks identified as Independents.

Whether through his divisive policies or through his divisive dismissal of those who oppose his policies he has been the master of partisanship. Obama ran on a promise to end partisanship, and as a post racial candidate, and on pledges of transparency, and open ethical government.

Monday, April 26, 2010

Daily Briefing for April 26th: The 60% Solution

 The 60% Solution by Melody Kite

Poll after poll and study after study indicate that 60% or more of this nation view themselves, their thoughts and values as conservative. Whoever champions those values should never lose an election, unless the Democrats move back towards the center and find their blue dog voice.

From The American Thinker:

..."Since June 2002, the Battleground Poll has asked this same question in its demographics section, and in fifteen consecutive polls, the answer has always been the same. Americans overwhelmingly describe themselves as conservative. What does "overwhelming" mean in this context? The percentage of Americans who call themselves conservative in these polls has never been less than 58% (conservative strength was that at its lowest point through these years in December 2007, when "only" 58% of Americans described themselves as conservative.) There has been a remarkable consistency in the responses to this question. Over the course of these polls, 60.2% of Americans, on average, call themselves conservative.

The results of the April 2010 Battleground Poll show that nothing has changed. Fifty-nine percent of Americans in the latest Battleground Poll call themselves conservative; two percent of Americans call themselves moderate; thirty-four percent call themselves liberal; and five percent were either unsure or refused to answer. Remove the "Unsure/Refused," and sixty-two percent of Americans are conservative. Stories from the establishment media, like USA Today and the L.A. Times, conveniently miss the underlying story about the April 2010 Battleground Poll."

This begs the question of who is crafting the message, or lack thereof, for the Republican Party? Recent elections show that the Right has been unable to capture and use that majority to the Party's advantage!

Why is it that the Right has been unable to find their voice? What message is it that both Republican and Conservative candidates appear unable to articulate, or cannot address and are missing in their talking points that voters need to hear? Or, even worse what message are they not sending at all that needs to be communicated in a clear and consistent voice that would resonate with voters insuring our values as a ruling majority for decades?

The American voting public has been manipulated back and forth by both parties in an indiscernible cloudy message of altruistic falsehoods fostered by false progressive populism. The end game for us on the right is when our message is shaded only slightly differently than the message from the left, is we lose. We lose because the left's hypnotic mantra is not our true message. The voter, given the same progressive message from both sides, will choose the one that rings more true. Since the left's message seems more genuine they win more often than they should.

Both parties currently lie to the left of Center when it comes to values, while Americans live by conservative values, just right of the center, as the Battleground poll indicates an astounding 60%.

We as voters are ill served by ever more progressive choices from both parties who continually serve up candidates to choose as elected officials. It is a never ending game of bait and switch, toxic compromises and deal making. A seemingly smarmy landscape of back room schemes and machinations which insures American voters are continually faced with voting for the lesser of two evils. The rules are fast being set so that real sensible policies and the truth are the least desirable goal, and perpetuating power and incumbency the desired end game.

If, in the struggle to elect good leadership, the argument from the right remains clouded in some post modern progressivism, and personality, and who is cool or hot, we as a nation will remain trapped in a no win game, far from our founding principles with very disturbing outcomes.

As a Conservative, who, at this time to insure my vote is not wasted, votes currently with the Republican Party, I strongly believe it is critically important that our side fashions a message that will capture the hearts, minds, values, and aspirations of that 60%.

In 2008, Senator McCain, honorable hero that he is, lost sight of his inner values and appears to many voters to have sold out. He never set himself apart from his opponent in policy and was too willing to sacrifice principle for compromise. His willingness to compromise the conservative values of that 60% cost him the election. The polls statistically prove my point. Look directly at his polling numbers. When he made the decision to halt his campaign and be a Senator as a opposed to being a leader during the first bailout, Tarp, there was a twenty point swing that week end.

Our current circumstances are a direct result of placing personalities before principles. We are racing, at break neck speed, from our founding fundamentals. This can be seen in our everyday life, how we do business, how we govern ourselves and the examples we set for our children.

My suggestion to those Republicans and Conservatives running for office is they have talks not only with big donors, but with everyday citizens. Ask them what they would have you do to gain their vote.

Americans, in particular the 60% reflected in the Battleground polls, are a pretty candid bunch. 60% of Americans are yearning for a leader who will respond to their needs and aspirations leading through principal and example. Until the Republican Party finds its resonate voice we will remain out of power.

Unfortunately, this current power hungry administration leaves us facing the very proposition that we may have only one election cycle left to start cleaning up the mess. Unless we can make a difference in 2010, 2012 will not matter. 

Editor's note:
See also: Gallup (with "moderates" - but don't misinterpret this as contradictory):

Sunday, April 25, 2010

Daily Briefing for April 25th: The Administration Attacks Tea Party Because It Is a Threat

It Takes A Tea Party to Save A Nation by Melody Kite (ed. RJ)

The coming elections in 2010 are perhaps the most important in the history of this magnificent Republic.

The unending smears and misrepresentations of this movement are fantastic and blatant lies made to defend the current administration's calculated overreaches to change forever the fabric and founding ideals of this nation.

In a desperate move to complete their agenda, Democrats are in a rush to push their agenda prior to this election. Democrats fear our ability to stop them in their tracks.

It is left to us to continue to practice our First Amendment duties that of "Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

It is likely that the organized assault on the Tea Party Movement was orchestrated by Axelrod and Emanuel, given that the list of wrongs and grievances bear a striking similarity not only in content, but also in the race- baiting seen in blogs, heard on the air, and made by one elected scoundrel after another.  This includes President Obama, who in his arrogance thinks we should thank him is an outrage on every level.

The unsubstantiated attacks and smears on every level to our movement more than likely have far more to do with these polls and their fears of our flipping the Congress in the coming fall elections.

See this link also:

And this one:

Friday, April 23, 2010

Daily Briefing for April 23rd: Democrat Chickens Coming Home to Roost in Tarheel State?

Will North Carolina Democrats Be 'Feathered' by the Tarheel State This Election Season?  by Melody Kite (Ed. - RJ)

North Carolina, the Tarheel state ranked as the 23rd most Conservative state, managed to give Obama a narrow victory in 2008 and award him 15 electoral votes. For the Republicans to gain 8 seats in the fall Burr must win his re-election bid.

In recent history North Carolina has elected the Breck Boy Senator John Edwards, John Kerry's VP pick, failed Presidential contender, an admitted adulterer, and the purveyor of a nonsensical deceitful race baiting view of two America's as his campaign theme.

The Tarheels also voted to elect one of the left's constant targets of derision and hate, staunchly Conservative Senator, Jesse Helms, who retired from the Senate in 2002 and died in July of 2008, to five successive terms in the United States Senate.

You would be hard pressed to find two more politically polar opposites elected to the Senate by the same state.

Formerly a stronghold for Republicans, the state is demographically rated nearly 7% more Republican than the national average and recent elections appear to defy that statistic.

Incumbent Republican Senator Burr faces a tough challenge to hold his seat, however, as a result of Senator Burr’s polling statistics for the last three months, Real Clear Politics has recently upgraded this race as a leans Republican seat for the fall election.

Wouldn't it be delightful to see large numbers of naked roosting Democratic chickens?

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Daily Briefing for April 22nd: Democrats - Say HI to Another Possible Loss

As Hawaii Goes So Goes the Nation? by Melody Kite (Edited - RJ)

Whatta Stunner!

Hawaii is one of the bluest states in the Union and it has nothing to do with the fact that it surrounded by the deep blue sea!

It looks as if the Red Tide Tsunami could even reach Dem-soaked Hawaii. Maybe, just maybe Obama is NOT THE 57TH STATE'S FAVORITE SON, and instead of notes of Blue Hawaii, the appropriate song is Red Sails in the Sunset!

How bad can it get for Democrats? Example #5,671 by Rick Moran

What would you say if I were to tell you that a was ahead in a special election House race in Hawaii?

Yes, you read that correctly. In Hawaii, Republicans are usually as rare as hens teeth. But the dissatisfaction with the Democrats runs so deep, that even in the bluest of blue states, the GOP is very competitive.

How competitive?

Republican Charles Djou has climbed 15 points in the polls since January and is now ahead in the deep blue state! Charles Djou is currently leading the field in the latest polling. Djou held a "money wave" today for his campaign. He was hoping to raise $100,000. It looks like he will make it. You still have time to donate to his campaign for .

UPDATE: Djou raised $105,888 in his money bomb exceeding his goal by $5,888!

The special election is May 22 so there is still a long way to go yet. And the winner of this race will have to run again in November. But make no mistake, a lot of Democrats will be sweating if Djou can pull this off.

See also at RedState- DCCC Poll: Hawaii Tied (Djou Can Win)

Editor's Note: Here is what Conservapedia has to say about Charles Djou (pronounced Zhou, in accordance with his Chinese heritage):

Republican Charles Djou (b. August 9, 1970) is currently running for the U.S. House of Representatives in a special election to replace Democrat representative Neil Abercrombie, who has announced he will step down to run for Governor of Hawaii. Djou was a State Representative for Hawaii in 2000 and was elected Councilman in 2002 for the city of Honolulu, 4th Council District (Waikiki to Hawaii Kai). He is a fiscal conservative that has a strong legislative voting record. Charles Djou is a JAG Officer of the U.S. Army Reserves 9th Regional Readiness Command. Also, he holds a law degree and is the one time Vice Chairman of the Hawaii Republican Party. Politico has called him the next Scott Brown.

Djou was a representative in the Hawaii State Legislature from 2001-2002.  See Archives for more information.

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Daily Briefing for April 21st: PA-12 Overview and The Mysterious Case of the Disappearing Conservatives?

 An Oddity, The Pennsylvania 12th Special Primary Election - by Melody Kite (Ed. - RJ)

One of the more unusual twists in a year of fairly stunning political circumstances can be found in the race for former Congressman John Murtha’s seat left vacant by his death earlier this year. Pennsylvania’s 12th Congressional district, a seat which was held by Murtha for 36 years.

The winner of this currently open seat may find that he is a lame duck the same day he is elected to office if he does not survive his primary. Weirdly enough although he may win the special election, should he lose the primary even though he is the incumbent he may not run for the office in the fall. Even more bizarre the special election is on the same exact day as the states Primary, May 18th.

From RCP:

A McLaughlin poll (R) from Washington Post reports that it has "obtained" calls the race within the margin of error in the race to replace Jack Murtha between former Murtha aide Mark Critz and Republican businessman Tim Burns. [...]

And on this map it is listed as a toss up.  [Continued]

Editor's note: The Mysterious Case of the Disappearing Conservatives?

Another layer of complexity to the Pennsylvania 12 special election comes from the GOP establishment's treatment of military veteran Bill Russell. Although Russell ran a respectable campaign against the pathologically corrupt late Jack Murtha in 2008, garnering 42 percent of the vote, Russell been frozen out of consideration for funding or endorsement by the Republican committee in charge of nomination for the May 18th special election primary.  This despite his strong polling in mid-February, according to Zogby. Bill Russell will nonetheless be on the ballot against Tim Burns and Mark Critz.

I'm seeing a pattern here.  Conservative candidate threatens status quo.  GOP machine puts kabosh on funding or endorsement, despite grassroots support.  Witness the campaign of outsider Armando Gutierrez in Florida 8, who had raised hundreds of thousands of dollars and acquired numerous endorsements, but nonetheless, after meeting with Republican bigwigs like Rudy Giuliani, disappeared from the political map.  This after rumors that Gutierrez was ruffling feathers in very well-padded GOP nests.

Very suspicious indeed.  I am wagering that some truly conservative upstarts are being paid off or threatened by the powers that be. Nowhere does this smack more than in Alan Grayson's district, not only because of lunatic antics (whether genuine or not) that would hypothetically make him a sitting duck, but because of his apparent showboating against the Fed, which has gotten us essentially nowhere.  Grayson may very well be the perfect fake opposition who is really in the pocket of big banking.  If this is the case, it is really no wonder that Republican candidates continually drop out against Grayson whenever they show that they have a fighting chance.  From The Hill:

Recruiting a candidate to run against Grayson has been a tough slog for Republican leaders, with a casualty list that includes former state Sen. Daniel Webster, Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, state Rep. Steve Precourt, state House Speaker Larry Cretul and several others.

The corruption runs deep indeed, and it is clear that tea party activists need to take on corruption in the Republican party as much as the political insanity in the Democrat party.  Keep an eye out for cases of disappearing conservatives and tea party activists when getting in striking distance of either Republican or Democrat incumbents.  Many could be taking long vacations from politics to "pursue their dreams" or waking up with withdrawal letters wrapping fish heads.

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Daily Briefing for April 20th: Indiana Senate

The Indiana Senate race will soon be upon us, and the prospects are not looking good for Brad Ellsworth.  But the handsome Congressman should not be underestimated, as he has a sizable war chest and a Democrat attack machine on his side.

Democratic Congressman Ellsworth entered the race after Evan Bayh dropped out, among rumors that he may be seeking the presidential nomination in 2012.

Ellsworth is favored in the May 4th Indiana primary over relative unknown Tamyra R. D'Ippolito, who had raised no money at last count, compared to Ellsworth's cool million.

Republican former Senator Dan Coats leads Ellsworth, while a libertarian-likable John Hostettler also has a favorable lead of seventeen points versus the Democratic congressman.

According to the Hostettler campaign, Coats is a closet RINO. This charge is backed by Coats' liberal voting record, such as his vote against semi-automatic weapons (pretty much all modern civilian firearms) and for Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg.  Even the Indiana GOP has taken notice and has gone against the clueless NRSC to oppose the national party organ's backing of Coats.

Other candidates in the field include openly free market candidate Richard Behney, farmer and state legislator Marlin Stutzman, who is racking up a respectable campaign fund, and a pragmatic conservative Don Bates Jr., who is second only to Stutzman in funding.

Indiana leans Republican by an average of six points, so exposure in the general elections is probably not as big a fight as getting the right Republican in to face off against Ellsworth.  By my estimate, that candidate should be John Hostettler, though Stutzman, Bates Jr., and Behney are all palatable candidates.

It is still early, and Ellsworth should not be underestimated. Ellsworth has a large campaign chest and a state government that is not afraid of voter fraud. Hostettler may have a big lead on Ellsworth now, but he also appears to be short on funding at last count (contribute). That will need to change by November if a hypothetical Hostettler bid is to overtake both the NRSC-backed RINO Dan Coats and the Democrat attack machine.

April 20
DeMint Breaks Ranks to Support Stutzman
Does Indiana Really Remember Dan Coats (with voting record lowlights)

April 21
Pence backs Coats - Again

Monday, April 19, 2010

Daily Briefing for April 19th

Sleeping Around with RINOs by Melody Kite

You would think that the discussion of how to win would soon be clear.

When was the last time you actually decided to engage with, develop a long term relationship with a mealy mouthed milquetoast mixed message marginally interesting person who bored you to death?

Or you gave money and time to some one that lied repeatedly flirted incessantly with another and you still chose to continue the relationship, settling left-overs for dinner and continued to suffer with a completely unsatisfying date, engagement, business partner or marriage?

While most of us will eventually leave those partners, lovers and friendships, we continue to dance with RINOS, and line up to vote for sloppy seconds and huge disappointments from Republican elected officials who are not only take our support for granted but are all too often ethically challenged, and more often than not leave us to pay for their grandiose schemes and have a deaf ear to our complaints.

Year after year like someone addicted to some toxic relationship we return to the polling place and pull the lever for the likes of Arlen Specter, Olympia Snowe, Charlie Crist, Chelsey Graham, and the John McCain’s of the world.

I do not mean to imply that these are bad people. They just don't seem to understand who pays the freight and who sent them to one of the most select clubs in the world.

However, Congressional session after session these folks do things that really upset the base of the Republican Party. We let them know we are not happy. And they of course to reinsure their election make nice and take us to dinner or buy us some flowers or some fancy bauble and all is forgiven. [Continued]

Saturday, April 17, 2010

Daily Briefing for April 17th

The polls seem to indicate that the Democrats are finished in the House regardless of what they do.  The sheer satisfaction of watching Nancy Pelosi pack up her gavel and take her place in the peanut gallery is almost worth the ordeal the Dems put the country through this year. Almost.

Though whatever the Democrats do on their agenda will inflame anti-out-of-control government sentiments further, it probably cannot get worse for them.  This is a very dangerous situation for the country given the absolute depths of corruption and strong-arms tactics to which the Democrats are willing to stoop.

This is why the energy in the conservative base needs to be channeled towards ferreting out RINOs as much or more than in the general elections.  (See the RINO safari task bar at top).  

The Republicans are virtually guaranteed the mid-term pick-up in seats, and this year looks to be a doozy.  Some have the Republicans at +44 in the House, though I see at least 62 seats in play for Republicans. The crucial question is: What kind of Republicans?

Candidates like Marco Rubio and Rand Paul are encouraging - and it appears that they will endure the shenanigans of RNC-endorsed opposition and state political corruption, respectively.  And if statists like Tommy Thompson are on the way out, as he is no longer in the Wisconsin Senate race, I will hardly shed a tear.  The problem is that Russ Feingold emerges the stronger for it.

It is absolutely crucial that we get true conservatives who will look to restore Constitutionally limited government come hell or high water.  The negative consequences are almost too grave to ponder at this point.  Almost.

California Senator Boxer Taking Hits in Polls
Reid Being Harried in Nevada (Poll Lowden +10)
The Mark of McCain? (Poll McCain+5)
Boozman Pouring it on Lincoln in Ark Senate Race (Poll Boozman+15)
Republicans Edge Dems by +3.2-5 pts in Generic Congressional Ballot (Poll GOP +3.2)
RINO Kirk's Enterprise at Risk in Illinois (Poll Kirk +0.3)

Current GOP pick-up estimates: Low: 39, High: 55. (Swing is 41).

Friday, April 16, 2010

Daily Briefing for April 16th

With the hundreds of tax day protests involving "thousands" of tea party activists in our wake, and the fog of the media blackout yet to be lifted, it is best to boldly forge ahead to smoother waters.

We have expressed our moral outrage admirably, and for that, all Americans must be applauded.  But Washington D.C. is not tone deaf, nor willfully blind; it is intent on doing what the political class wants, whether Americans disagree with it or not.

We are maturing as a movement, as the Democrats' politics of hubris begins to wear thin.  We are less reactionary and more focused, clearing aside the media memes, disinformation, and diversionary tactics like a thresher scything off the kernels of truth.

And the truth is that we are a movement growing in influence.  In the month since the Democrats force-fed a majority of Americans the unsavory healthcare bill, for every two tea party patriots, another one has joined the fray.

The media and the elites can attempt to forestall the crashing wave of voter retribution by silencing our voices, but they cannot quell the fervor in our hearts and minds, our love of freedom, and our passion for restoring America to her greatness.

Our vision is what unites us, and the haze of lies the government and its fawning advocates place before our eyes can only dim the light that leads us; it will never extinguish it, and we will move forward despite all obstacles in our way.

Liberty is the light that gives yield to the fruits of our lives' labor, and now our labor of love is to shine the light of liberty across this great land.  We are joined in a marriage that can never be separated.  We are at one with liberty and the America of our forefathers.

Tyranny cannot and will not prevail; deceit and deception are its natural soil.  And my friends, on this our native soil, man will take his last stand against the enemies of freedom.  In our encircled bastion, the lovers of liberty will hold fast, and will not fail. We Americans are not deceived.

We will exact our vengeance calmly, and resolutely.  We will work tirelessly as long as is necessary to deconstruct the lies on which our government has been erected.  We will undo the myth that government is able to live and do for us. We will restore government to its rightful place as protector and defender of our lives and do the rest ourselves.

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Daily Briefing for April 15th

Tax Day tea party rallies are scheduled nationwide, with notable gatherings anticipated in Washington D.C., Minnesota, and Nashville, among numerous others.  If you have the opportunity to get out and show support, let the politicians around the nation know that we aren't going away!

For a list of Tea Party rallies scheduled for April 15th see:
Tea Party Patriots
Tea Party Revolution
Tea Party Express

Also see PJTV for exclusive live streaming coverage of tea party rallies nationwide.

In other news, the lackadaisical support for and ultimate loss of Edward Lynch in Florida's heavily Democratic District 19 special election April 13th underscores the point that we need targeted, concentrated opposition to defeat statists around the country, in primary, special, and general elections.

While progressives are celebrating the victory of yet another one of their criminal racket being elected to office, tea party activists need to reflect on the dismal turnout and lack of awareness of what was going on in Florida 19.

Without a serious concerted Get Out the Vote (GOTV) effort, including the participation of precinct chairs, races closer than Florida 19 can slip out of reach.

Considering that Democrat voter fraud will be in full swing, with the participation of George Soros' Secretary of State scam, we need to overwhelm the districts that are on the edge and put them out of reach by at least four to five percentage points.

We cannot afford to watch districts and states that are within two to three percentage points of conservative victory be compromised by fraud, as appears to be the case with Minnesota's farcical Franken victory and the absentee ballot shenanigans in NY's 23rd election, which saw Doug Hoffman's premature concession to Republican-endorsed Democrat Bill Owens.

So stay active!  Stay engaged!  Never give up the fight!

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Welcome to Tea Party Elections!

This site is dedicated to the targeted removal of statists in both parties.

The tea party movement in general is not for Republicans, Democrats, Libertarians, or any other political party, it for those who will support and defend liberty, and against those who will expand government, spend more money Americans do not have, infringe on civil liberties, and violate the Constitution of the United States.

The purpose of the nationwide analysis of all primaries and elections on Tea Party Elections is to help tea party activists lead a more informed and effective opposition to an increasingly confiscatory, reckless, oppressive, and potentially dangerous government.

The navigation bar at the top of the page will provide links to information on the primary candidates for Senate and the House of Representatives.

In addition to primary and general election information and results, one can find here links to campaign websites, overviews of the most vulnerable Democrats on the "Adopt-a-Democrat" link, Republicans-in-Name-Only (RINOs) on the "RINO Safari" link, as well as inspiring historical and contemporary essays, news articles on the tea party movement, profiles on conservatives in the Candidates for Freedom link, up-to-date news and information on the Tea Party Spotlight link, as well as networking, and resources on the shifting political terrain in the Strategy Room link.

There is also a list of primary dates on the right sidebar. Upcoming primaries will be highlighted in red.

Please spread the word and work hard to defeat the internal threats to the American way of life. We never want to have to explain to our friends, families, and children how we could stand by and watch the rise of a tyrannical government in what was once the freest nation and last best hope for humanity on earth.