Thursday, May 13, 2010

Daily Briefing Discontinued

Due to lack of demand, the Daily Briefing is now Discontinued.  I encourage people to go to RealClearPolitics for up-to-date information on elections.

Monday, May 3, 2010


On May 4th, three states will hold their primaries - North Carolina, Ohio, and Indiana. The Tarheel State is solidly red, with Richard Burr ahead and clear sailing, but Indiana and Ohio will be important bellwethers for the upcoming primary season.

We have previewed the Indiana Senate race, where RINO Dan Coats is currently in the lead. John Hostettler is the candidate to watch there. We have also discussed the Ohio open Senate race. Thomas Ganley had been giving "green Republican" Rob Portman a run for his money and then mysteriously dropped out to pursue the 13th district seat. Now Portman will face open seas and can put his $6 million war chest against either Democrat Jennifer Brunner or Lee Fisher (Fisher is currently way ahead).

And once again, it seems like any time there is a serious challenge to a RINO, like Rob Portman in Ohio, the conservative candidate drops out; or the trailing RINO declares he is "Independent," like Crist in Florida; or even in the notorious House-23 race in NY, imperiled lib in Republican's clothing Scozzafava drops out to throw her support to the Democrat opposing the conservative Republican Doug Hoffmann!

Strange days, indeed.

We can conclude that establishment Republicans are not about to let a bunch of Johnny-Come-Lately tea party 'fanatics' jump on board and derail their gravy trains while babbling some nonsense about the "Constitution." They are going to scheme and obstruct and lie and do anything they can to prevent the restoration of limited government. That is why a coherent strategy to defeat BOTH RINOs and progressive Democrats is so vital.

In the House races, it will be interesting to see how the RINOs fare.  In Indiana, we have confirmed RINO Mark Souder (3), while in Ohio, there is the virtual Serengeti plain of Steven LaTourette (14), Michael Turner (3), Patrick Tiberi (12), Steve Austria (7), Jean Schmidt (2), and in North Carolina we have anti-war activist and perpetual nuisance Walter Jones (3).  More information can be found on the RINO Safari link on the website.

I am currently projecting that the more conservative the district (which because of the data and the nature of American politics we have to make due to associate with "strong Republican"), according to the objective Partisan Voter Index (PVI) site, the better the chance that a RINO will be thrown out.  Let's see if that speculation bears out tomorrow.

Reasoning as such, we can use the PVIs (+ is Republican, - is Democrat) to speculate the likely odds of being unseated in the primaries: Walter Jones (+16), Mark Souder (+14), Jean Schmidt (+13), Steve Austria (+7), Michael Turner (+5), Steve La Tourette (+3), and Patrick Tiberi (-1).  It will be interesting to find out the correlation and margin of error of this hypothesis tomorrow, and how it holds water over the election season.  If it tends to be true, it can help tea party activists strategize where and how to unseat RINOs across the country.  If it is false, we need to find out why.

Currently, this is what we know about these races. There is a dearth of polling on the House races, but we can use a proxy measure, and that is campaign funding.  Although imperfect, it is generally understood that money talks, and well, fringe candidates walk.  We can use OpenSecrets to track the following RINO races in terms of campaign funding (although often times the data are dated): Walter Jones, Mark Souder, Steven LaTourette, Michael Turner, Patrick Tiberi, Steve Austria, and Jean Schmidt.  Of these candidates, only three have serious cash-opposition: Mark Souder, Steve Austria, and Jean Schmidt, in descending order of seriousness.

THIS IS A WARNING TO TEA PARTY ACTIVISTS.  Unless you focus on a cohesive strategy to out verifiable RINOs, we will all will wind up with incessant headaches for the next four to six years.  We will be stabbed in the back more often than Julius Caesar at the end of the Roman Republic. We simply cannot rest on the laurels of a sizable advantage on the generic congressional ballot (from +1 to +7, depending on whom you trust; we'll throw the Democrat leaning polls out as obviously false in even average mnidterm elections).

The solution?  Support RINOs' conservative opposition!  I have carefully and methodically compiled a list of some RINOs.  Fund their opposition.  Cold call.  Spread names on the Internet and by word of mouth.  Don't let the red tide turn into a pink one!

If you agree with me, spread the name of these entries and the name of this site:!

Daily Briefing for May 4th: Primary Colors Set to Run Red

Today - Let The Pipeline Begin, The Big Red Tsunami Is Rolling In by Melody Kite

Today marks the real start of The Big Red Tsunami, Primary Season. In 35 days we will have the results of 25 Primary elections in States from nearly every region. And the preliminary salvos will be fired in North Carolina, Ohio and Indiana, bright and early.

This poll from Real Clear Politics shows a wide ranging set of polls as they are today before the real voting starts.

In a little more than a month we will have an idea of just how deep the Red discontent is and how many voters out there are willing to dip their fingers in red to stop the madness being pursued by the 111th Congress.

The projections are all over the place, from what appears a sure 30 seats to a hopeful 120 seat change in the House and a likely 8 Senators (which requires holding retiring Senator Voinovich's seat in Ohio), but one thing is certain, there is a real mood in the country to throw all incumbents out, shown by the most recent polling of Congressional Job Approval at a near all time low for approval.

Two races which have a delicious irony that any on the right can love are the race for the 12th Congressional District in Pennsylvania to fill Democrat Jack Murtha's seat left vacant by his death today shows the Republican Burns ahead by 6 percentage points.

And from the same link in the race on the 22nd of May to fill a vacated house seat in Hawaii, even more delightful the Republican Djou, is also ahead by 8 percentage points.

In this link, a story from NPR, House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, told NPR News last week that ..."at least 100 House seats are in play this year. Our latest ABC News electoral outlook puts 115 House seats currently in play and about 50 of those are highly competitive races."

ABC news shows just how deep the discontent is amongst voters, it speaks to how voters will take their fury out on the leadership of the 111th Congress, and the policies and agendas of President Obama's Administration:
"...The success of Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi's agenda is what we will give them credit for. And it is a miserable failure with continued unemployment, higher taxation and debt," said National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas at a recent campaign briefing with reporters where he was laying out the message strategy for the months ahead. …”

Be sure to vote if your state is one where primaries are held in the next 35 days, and the rest of us will curl up adorned in our Tea Party gear and red paraphernalia and watch the Red Results!

We will have a really good picture of just how bad the shellacking of the Democrats will be.

Daily Briefing for May 3rd: Democrat Delusion Our Strongest Ally

Democrat's Titanic Syndrome and The Rising Red Tsunami by Melody Kite

Too Big to Fail! ‘Unsinkable’

Democrats are either disregarding the iceberg’s of public opinion surrounding them or thinking the Red Tsunami that is headed their way will not reach their district, or impact their seat.

Since his election, the Captain of the US Democratic Party, President Obama and his Administration have been dissmissive of and have showing his opposition nothing but arrogance. Both the President and his Administration appear to the American public in polling data (as high as 70% in some polls) to be lost at sea in a fog of self-delusion and are defiantly tin-eared to the 'noise in the background', along with, the DNC chairman and the rest of the Democratic leadership.

It also appears that the the main-stream media has either an editorial blind eye or a tin ear to what average every day working Americans are expressing. The left appears to live in Wonderland, and from their coverage it appears editorially their decisions must be based on a premise of if they can play ostrich long enough and pretend we do not exist we will go away.

NO way are we going anywhere but to vote this fall, and to Tea Parties, Town hall meetings, and visit our representatives. We are all going to watch all those rats drown in their own hubris.

This movement has a big clue for them-- we will not go quietly down with the ship. We have commandeered all the lifeboats and socialist, mad spending hidden deal making traitors and sleazy liars are doomed to a cold watery death and certain losses at the polls this coming election season.

The signs are every where, even the media is starting to demand real press conferences. [Continued]

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Daily Briefing for May 2nd: Tea Party Report for Indiana Senate

A new poll conducted by the Downs Center/SUSA available via attachment at Real Clear Politics, provides some informative lessons for tea party activists.  The data suggest that what it will take to maximize gains for conservative Republicans in the primary season is a principled targeting of the middle, focusing on bread-and-butter issues like the economy, while de-emphasizing ideology. From the study:

Tea Party Movement
Respondents were asked two questions about the Tea Party Movement. The first asked if their opinion of the Tea Party Movement was favorable, unfavorable, neutral, or if they had no opinion of the movement. The second asked if the respondent identified with the Tea Party Movement. Favorable views were held by 42% of the respondents while 23% had unfavorable views. One in five (20%) of the respondents had a neutral view and 15% had no opinion. Although 42% had a favorable view of the Tea Party Movement, only 27% identified with the movement. The percentage of Republican primary voters holding a favorable view of the Tea Party Movement jumped to 78%. The percentage of Republican primary voters identifying with the Tea Party Movement increased to 56%.

Despite the anti-Washington persona of much of the Tea Party Movement, its Indiana supporters are more supportive of the “establishment” candidate Dan Coats than other candidates, including Marlin Stutzman who has been endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund which is led by Senator Jim DeMint (R-S.C.). The Senate Conservatives Fund has endorsed and attempted to raise money for conservative candidates against more moderate establishment Republicans. Just over a third of those voters viewing the Tea Party Movement favorably (34%) were supporting Coats with 21% supporting Hostettler and 20% supporting Stutzman.

Among Republican primary voters identifying with The Tea Party Movement, Coats lost some of his support, but still has the plurality at 30% with 23% supporting Stutzman and 21% supporting Hostettler.

The polling, carried out by two professors, has the establishment candidate Coats up by 12 points.  The bane of our existence is the "Independents leaning Republican" demographic aka those "mavericks" who think that John McCain is a conservative because the media outlets keep telling them so.

That being said, nearly four out of five Republican primary voters hold favorable views of the tea party movement.  Those who self-identify with the tea party movement is just over half, however, at 56%.

This suggests that the tea party movement can win over many more voters by sticking to core issues like the economy, rather than more obscure issues like Obama's "communism" or the birth certificate issue.  These are legitimate issues, but they are not going to win any "Independents" on the fence over to our side.

We don't need any more RINOs like Mark Kirk (who does have the general election lead in Illinois) or Charlie (oh) Crist (who just defected from the Republicans; see Charlie Crist to G.O.P.: Drop Dead from the charming New York Times)) winning their primary noms.  We need men like John Hostettler of Indiana (see May 2nd story), who registered Republicans prefer to former Indiana Senator (and disappointment) Dan Coats.

We also need to convince the moderates that Constitutional conservatism is "sane" and not "right-wing."  The best way to do this is to keep posterizing regular Americans, in other words, the blue collar workers, little old ladies, and middle American kids who attend tea party rallies, as emblematic of the movement.  Pictures are worth a thousand words, and on the Internet they are a powerful force multiplier.

In terms of messages to the moderate middle, we should focus like a laser beam on common-sense economics.  The failure of the left's recent Keynesian experiment is clear even according to its own terms (remember last spring when Obama promised 8% unemployment by now?).  Government has contributed ZERO and actually represented a net drag on the economy's (jobless) recovery" in 1Q 2010, after hundreds of billions of dollars in government spending, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' recent report (See Table 2: Government consumption expenditures and gross investment; summary).  So the Democrats not only lie when it comes to the economy,  the government confirms that the Democrats lie with its own statements and reports. Such arguments are more persuasive to those "pragmatists" who think ideology is utterly irrelevant.

The media will continue to portray the tea party movement as "fringe," even infiltrating and planting their own "racist" subverters. We should not help the media by venting our understandable fear and alarm at the socialists in government. Our frustration with the disconnected "middle" cannot overwhelm our need to truly crush the leftist Democrats in November.

Daily Briefing for May 1st: Time to Remove the Pretenders in Ohio

Ohio Primary Precursor To Fall Election by Melody Kite

Ohio is ranked nationally as the 26th most conservative state, and voted for Obama in 2008. Demographically Ohio is 2.69% more Republican than the national average.

There are two Democrats running for Senate in Ohio, Democrat Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, and Jennifer Brunner. Fisher is polling well above Brunner, and will likely win the Democratic primary. Fisher is projected to to win the Democratic primary by a wide margin and will run against the Republican candidate Ron Portman who is running uncontested in the primary elections.

The race is sizing up to be Fisher-Portman match up, to fill the seat left vacant by Republican Senator Voinovich who is retiring this election cycle, and may well be the hardest seat for Republicans to hold this fall.

Ron Portman as seen in this polling data by Real Clear Politics only holds less than one percentage point lead against either Democratic primary contender and shows the wide gap between the Democratic Candidates.

This Quinnipiac Poll shows the current trends for the upcoming elections in the fall:

Polling numbers show the challenge that Republicans will face in the fall elections. The current polling averages for Governor shows Republican Tom Kasich to be one percentage point behind incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland, and within the margin of error in the race for Governor. Real Clear Politics currently has the race for Governor rated as a toss-up.

Election Projection gives detailed information on the current trends for all of the Ohio seats for the primary elections, and calls for a pick up two Congressional seats in the coming fall elections.

Obama has weak approval ratings in the state of Ohio, one of the battleground states, and Independents will have a large voice in this election. Their votes will be the ones that will tip the fall elections to the winning Party. 

All of the current polls reflect tight races, for the seats of Senate and Governor, and indicate they will be a challenge for Republicans to win in the fall elections. Both of the races at this point look to be a horserace to the finish. All of data at this point is reflective of the difficulty Republicans face in Ohio to not only reign in, but win conclusively barring any challenges when the election is over.

The primary elections in Ohio will be the first salvo in what appears to be a real fight to the finish line, as Real Clear Politics has called Ohio a toss-up for the fall elections.

We can only hope that the old saying as ‘Ohio goes so goes the nation’ does not apply in the fall elections.

The Republican Party, and Kasich and Portman will have their work cut out in the coming fall elections, and the Ohio primary will show where their time and effort should be spent.