Primary Season Coming to a Close

The last primary of 2010 will be Hawaii's on September 18th.  Then Tea Party Elections will transfer over into full campaign mode.  Stay tuned for more in the final stretch.

From Perfection Under A Red Umbrella: June 8th Primary Preview

11 Primaries On June 8th ~ A Task To Sort Out by Melodie Kite 

What a wild year. I have followed elections since I was a child. I cannot recall a wilder year politically. In a year when Republicans should be happily heading towards the fall elections the Conservatives led by Demint and the other Republicans led by Cornyn are in a bitter inside fight for control of the party. So far DeMints choices have fared better, but the Republicans should be developing a platform, and not squabbling with one another. Michael Steele our own affirmative action choice seems unable to help matters and at best ineffective.

We will know much late tomorrow evening and on Wednesday morning, and in the following weeks will will know if the Tea Parties can hold their resolve to flip the house.
You can find tidbits of a forecasts here, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/politics_nation/2010/06/week_ahead_super_tuesday_is_here.html
In recent weeks, Fred Barnes had this interesting column in the Weekly Standard, http://www.theweeklystandard.com/blogs/can-gop-win-senate-2010

Below I have used my two most reliable resources, http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ and http://www.electionprojection.com/index.php

Arkansas

Runoff - Polls For Democrat Nominee
Halter has a slim 4 point lead in one poll and Lincoln a 1.8 lead in the other. With any luck as I see it we can wave goodbye to good ol' Blanche! Arkansas is one of the states that should become a plus for Republicans in the Senate.

California

In California, much to the dismay of many Conservatives Fiorina and Whitman are wildly ahead in the polls, while two true Conservatives, and Tea Party Favorites struggle for recognition Davore (Senate) and Natarelli (Governor). To top it off there are the huge population areas of the San Francisco Bay Area and the Los Angeles Basin. Republicans are out registered by Democrats by 2 to 1. Given California's dire financial situation it is hard to say that anyone can correct what is wrong.

Fiorina RCP Average 5/19 - 6/6 -- 43.2 21.6 16.2 Fiorina +21.6
Whitman RCP Average 5/19 - 6/6 -- 54.6 25.8 Whitman +28.8

Iowa
In Iowa Branstad is firmly ahead in the Republican primary for Governor.
Primary - Polls
Des Moines Register 6/1 - 6/3 501 LV 57 29 8 Branstad +28
Grassly should hold his seat despite his early treachery with the Healthcare bill.

Maine from http://www.electionprojection.com/blog/tags/megov_2010.php
"Governor: Democrat John Baldacci is term-limited. He is currently serving his second four-year term in Augusta. Looking to occupy the Governor's Mansion after he leaves are no less than 20 different folks, 7 Republicans, 7 Democrats and, in keeping with Maine's political DNA, 6 independents. At this stage it is highly difficult to pick the nominees - much less the next governor. Polls don't help much, giving nobody a clear advantage. So, the preliminary projection leans left just as Maine does."

Primary
I can find no primary polling data for Maine.

Montana
In Montana, I can find no information, the Governor is not up for re-election, nor are either of the two Senators.


Nevada
Talk about controversy. Nevada has a ton of it. As one of the states hit hardest by the recession it has more vacant homes on the market than any other. The unemployment rate is highest in Nevada, and the Tea Parties have different favorites, today in a rare departure, TPN endorsed Tarkanian, other Tea Parties have endorsed Angle, and both have surpassed Lowden recently in the polls. Earlier in the year all were well ahead of the weasel Harry Reid. In the last few weeks Angle has pulled ahead, and in a heads up poll leads Reid by 4 points. Reid has a campaign chest of some 9 million bucks so no matter who challenges him this weasel will need to run through all of his lives and with any luck we will be able to say "poof" goes the Weasel this fall

Primary - Polls
Senate RCP Average 5/31 - 6/3 -- 33.0 24.7 24.3 Angle +8.3
Governor RCP Average 5/31 - 6/3 -- 47.3 28.3 Sandoval +19.0

New Jersey
New Jersey who we all grew to love and heaped tons of praise on elected on of the most exciting and straight speaking governors in years. Neither Senate seat is up for reelection, and I could find no data on the Congressional races, let us hope that Christie has some magic and some coattails.

North Dakota
from: http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/statepages/nd10.php
Senate

Primary
05/19/10 Rasmussen Reports Hoeven 72% - Potter 23%

CD-AL

05/27/10 Larry Sabato Pundit Change: Toss-up to Lean GOP
05/20/10 Rasmussen Reports Berg 52% - Pomeroy 43%
05/21/10 RATING CHANGE: Weak Pomeroy to Weak Berg
05/15/10 CQ Politics Pundit Change: Lean DEM to Toss-up

South Carolina
from: http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/statepages/sc10.php

Primary - Polls

Senate

05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) DeMint 49% - Rawl 30%

Governor

05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Haley 45% - Rex 36%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) McMaster 42% - Rex 36%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Barrett 38% - Rex 36%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Rex 40% - Bauer 38%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Haley 44% - Rex 34%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) McMaster 43% - Sheheen 36%
05/23/10 Public Policy Polling (D) Barrett 43% - Sheheen 33%

CD-1
05/15/10 CQ Politics Pundit Change: Likely GOP to Safe GOP

CD-5
05/23/10 Public Opinion (R) Spratt 43% - Mulvaney 41%

South Dakota
From: http://www.electionprojection.com/2010elections/statepages/sd10.php

Primary
Governor

05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Knuppe 47% - Heidepriem 34%
05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Munsterman 46% - Heidepriem 38%
05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Howie 49% - Heidepriem 36%
05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Knudson 49% - Heidepriem 34%
05/26/10 Rasmussen Reports Daugaard 51% - Heidepriem 36%

CD-AL

05/27/10 Rasmussen Reports Herseth-Sandlin 48% - Curd 41%
05/27/10 Rasmussen Reports Herseth-Sandlin 46% - Noem 43%
05/27/10 Rasmussen Reports Herseth-Sandlin 47% - Nelson 43%
05/27/10 Larry Sabato Pundit Change: Toss-up to Lean DEM

Virginia

The other fair state that gave us a big surprise with McDonnell earlier in the year, has no Senate Races or race for Governor. I can find no primary statistics for the House of Representatives in Virgina.

Daily Briefing Discontinued

Due to lack of demand, the Daily Briefing is now Discontinued.  I encourage people to go to RealClearPolitics for up-to-date information on elections.

MAY 4TH PRIMARY PREVIEW

On May 4th, three states will hold their primaries - North Carolina, Ohio, and Indiana. The Tarheel State is solidly red, with Richard Burr ahead and clear sailing, but Indiana and Ohio will be important bellwethers for the upcoming primary season.

We have previewed the Indiana Senate race, where RINO Dan Coats is currently in the lead. John Hostettler is the candidate to watch there. We have also discussed the Ohio open Senate race. Thomas Ganley had been giving "green Republican" Rob Portman a run for his money and then mysteriously dropped out to pursue the 13th district seat. Now Portman will face open seas and can put his $6 million war chest against either Democrat Jennifer Brunner or Lee Fisher (Fisher is currently way ahead).

And once again, it seems like any time there is a serious challenge to a RINO, like Rob Portman in Ohio, the conservative candidate drops out; or the trailing RINO declares he is "Independent," like Crist in Florida; or even in the notorious House-23 race in NY, imperiled lib in Republican's clothing Scozzafava drops out to throw her support to the Democrat opposing the conservative Republican Doug Hoffmann!

Strange days, indeed.

We can conclude that establishment Republicans are not about to let a bunch of Johnny-Come-Lately tea party 'fanatics' jump on board and derail their gravy trains while babbling some nonsense about the "Constitution." They are going to scheme and obstruct and lie and do anything they can to prevent the restoration of limited government. That is why a coherent strategy to defeat BOTH RINOs and progressive Democrats is so vital.

In the House races, it will be interesting to see how the RINOs fare.  In Indiana, we have confirmed RINO Mark Souder (3), while in Ohio, there is the virtual Serengeti plain of Steven LaTourette (14), Michael Turner (3), Patrick Tiberi (12), Steve Austria (7), Jean Schmidt (2), and in North Carolina we have anti-war activist and perpetual nuisance Walter Jones (3).  More information can be found on the RINO Safari link on the website.

I am currently projecting that the more conservative the district (which because of the data and the nature of American politics we have to make due to associate with "strong Republican"), according to the objective Partisan Voter Index (PVI) site, the better the chance that a RINO will be thrown out.  Let's see if that speculation bears out tomorrow.

Reasoning as such, we can use the PVIs (+ is Republican, - is Democrat) to speculate the likely odds of being unseated in the primaries: Walter Jones (+16), Mark Souder (+14), Jean Schmidt (+13), Steve Austria (+7), Michael Turner (+5), Steve La Tourette (+3), and Patrick Tiberi (-1).  It will be interesting to find out the correlation and margin of error of this hypothesis tomorrow, and how it holds water over the election season.  If it tends to be true, it can help tea party activists strategize where and how to unseat RINOs across the country.  If it is false, we need to find out why.

Currently, this is what we know about these races. There is a dearth of polling on the House races, but we can use a proxy measure, and that is campaign funding.  Although imperfect, it is generally understood that money talks, and well, fringe candidates walk.  We can use OpenSecrets to track the following RINO races in terms of campaign funding (although often times the data are dated): Walter Jones, Mark Souder, Steven LaTourette, Michael Turner, Patrick Tiberi, Steve Austria, and Jean Schmidt.  Of these candidates, only three have serious cash-opposition: Mark Souder, Steve Austria, and Jean Schmidt, in descending order of seriousness.

THIS IS A WARNING TO TEA PARTY ACTIVISTS.  Unless you focus on a cohesive strategy to out verifiable RINOs, we will all will wind up with incessant headaches for the next four to six years.  We will be stabbed in the back more often than Julius Caesar at the end of the Roman Republic. We simply cannot rest on the laurels of a sizable advantage on the generic congressional ballot (from +1 to +7, depending on whom you trust; we'll throw the Democrat leaning polls out as obviously false in even average mnidterm elections).

The solution?  Support RINOs' conservative opposition!  I have carefully and methodically compiled a list of some RINOs.  Fund their opposition.  Cold call.  Spread names on the Internet and by word of mouth.  Don't let the red tide turn into a pink one!

If you agree with me, spread the name of these entries and the name of this site: teapartyelections.blogspot.com!

Daily Briefing for May 4th: Primary Colors Set to Run Red

Today - Let The Pipeline Begin, The Big Red Tsunami Is Rolling In by Melody Kite


Today marks the real start of The Big Red Tsunami, Primary Season. In 35 days we will have the results of 25 Primary elections in States from nearly every region. And the preliminary salvos will be fired in North Carolina, Ohio and Indiana, bright and early.

This poll from Real Clear Politics shows a wide ranging set of polls as they are today before the real voting starts.

In a little more than a month we will have an idea of just how deep the Red discontent is and how many voters out there are willing to dip their fingers in red to stop the madness being pursued by the 111th Congress.

The projections are all over the place, from what appears a sure 30 seats to a hopeful 120 seat change in the House and a likely 8 Senators (which requires holding retiring Senator Voinovich's seat in Ohio), but one thing is certain, there is a real mood in the country to throw all incumbents out, shown by the most recent polling of Congressional Job Approval at a near all time low for approval.

Two races which have a delicious irony that any on the right can love are the race for the 12th Congressional District in Pennsylvania to fill Democrat Jack Murtha's seat left vacant by his death today shows the Republican Burns ahead by 6 percentage points.

And from the same link in the race on the 22nd of May to fill a vacated house seat in Hawaii, even more delightful the Republican Djou, is also ahead by 8 percentage points.

In this link, a story from NPR, House Minority Leader Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, told NPR News last week that ..."at least 100 House seats are in play this year. Our latest ABC News electoral outlook puts 115 House seats currently in play and about 50 of those are highly competitive races."

ABC news shows just how deep the discontent is amongst voters, it speaks to how voters will take their fury out on the leadership of the 111th Congress, and the policies and agendas of President Obama's Administration:
"...The success of Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi's agenda is what we will give them credit for. And it is a miserable failure with continued unemployment, higher taxation and debt," said National Republican Congressional Committee chairman Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas at a recent campaign briefing with reporters where he was laying out the message strategy for the months ahead. …”

Be sure to vote if your state is one where primaries are held in the next 35 days, and the rest of us will curl up adorned in our Tea Party gear and red paraphernalia and watch the Red Results!

We will have a really good picture of just how bad the shellacking of the Democrats will be.

Daily Briefing for May 3rd: Democrat Delusion Our Strongest Ally

Democrat's Titanic Syndrome and The Rising Red Tsunami by Melody Kite

Too Big to Fail! ‘Unsinkable’

Democrats are either disregarding the iceberg’s of public opinion surrounding them or thinking the Red Tsunami that is headed their way will not reach their district, or impact their seat.

Since his election, the Captain of the US Democratic Party, President Obama and his Administration have been dissmissive of and have showing his opposition nothing but arrogance. Both the President and his Administration appear to the American public in polling data (as high as 70% in some polls) to be lost at sea in a fog of self-delusion and are defiantly tin-eared to the 'noise in the background', along with, the DNC chairman and the rest of the Democratic leadership.

It also appears that the the main-stream media has either an editorial blind eye or a tin ear to what average every day working Americans are expressing. The left appears to live in Wonderland, and from their coverage it appears editorially their decisions must be based on a premise of if they can play ostrich long enough and pretend we do not exist we will go away.

NO way are we going anywhere but to vote this fall, and to Tea Parties, Town hall meetings, and visit our representatives. We are all going to watch all those rats drown in their own hubris.

This movement has a big clue for them-- we will not go quietly down with the ship. We have commandeered all the lifeboats and socialist, mad spending hidden deal making traitors and sleazy liars are doomed to a cold watery death and certain losses at the polls this coming election season.

The signs are every where, even the media is starting to demand real press conferences. [Continued]

Daily Briefing for May 2nd: Tea Party Report for Indiana Senate

A new poll conducted by the Downs Center/SUSA available via attachment at Real Clear Politics, provides some informative lessons for tea party activists.  The data suggest that what it will take to maximize gains for conservative Republicans in the primary season is a principled targeting of the middle, focusing on bread-and-butter issues like the economy, while de-emphasizing ideology. From the study:

Tea Party Movement
Respondents were asked two questions about the Tea Party Movement. The first asked if their opinion of the Tea Party Movement was favorable, unfavorable, neutral, or if they had no opinion of the movement. The second asked if the respondent identified with the Tea Party Movement. Favorable views were held by 42% of the respondents while 23% had unfavorable views. One in five (20%) of the respondents had a neutral view and 15% had no opinion. Although 42% had a favorable view of the Tea Party Movement, only 27% identified with the movement. The percentage of Republican primary voters holding a favorable view of the Tea Party Movement jumped to 78%. The percentage of Republican primary voters identifying with the Tea Party Movement increased to 56%.

Despite the anti-Washington persona of much of the Tea Party Movement, its Indiana supporters are more supportive of the “establishment” candidate Dan Coats than other candidates, including Marlin Stutzman who has been endorsed by the Senate Conservatives Fund which is led by Senator Jim DeMint (R-S.C.). The Senate Conservatives Fund has endorsed and attempted to raise money for conservative candidates against more moderate establishment Republicans. Just over a third of those voters viewing the Tea Party Movement favorably (34%) were supporting Coats with 21% supporting Hostettler and 20% supporting Stutzman.

Among Republican primary voters identifying with The Tea Party Movement, Coats lost some of his support, but still has the plurality at 30% with 23% supporting Stutzman and 21% supporting Hostettler.

Commentary:
The polling, carried out by two professors, has the establishment candidate Coats up by 12 points.  The bane of our existence is the "Independents leaning Republican" demographic aka those "mavericks" who think that John McCain is a conservative because the media outlets keep telling them so.

That being said, nearly four out of five Republican primary voters hold favorable views of the tea party movement.  Those who self-identify with the tea party movement is just over half, however, at 56%.

This suggests that the tea party movement can win over many more voters by sticking to core issues like the economy, rather than more obscure issues like Obama's "communism" or the birth certificate issue.  These are legitimate issues, but they are not going to win any "Independents" on the fence over to our side.

We don't need any more RINOs like Mark Kirk (who does have the general election lead in Illinois) or Charlie (oh) Crist (who just defected from the Republicans; see Charlie Crist to G.O.P.: Drop Dead from the charming New York Times)) winning their primary noms.  We need men like John Hostettler of Indiana (see May 2nd story), who registered Republicans prefer to former Indiana Senator (and disappointment) Dan Coats.

We also need to convince the moderates that Constitutional conservatism is "sane" and not "right-wing."  The best way to do this is to keep posterizing regular Americans, in other words, the blue collar workers, little old ladies, and middle American kids who attend tea party rallies, as emblematic of the movement.  Pictures are worth a thousand words, and on the Internet they are a powerful force multiplier.

In terms of messages to the moderate middle, we should focus like a laser beam on common-sense economics.  The failure of the left's recent Keynesian experiment is clear even according to its own terms (remember last spring when Obama promised 8% unemployment by now?).  Government has contributed ZERO and actually represented a net drag on the economy's (jobless) recovery" in 1Q 2010, after hundreds of billions of dollars in government spending, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' recent report (See Table 2: Government consumption expenditures and gross investment; summary).  So the Democrats not only lie when it comes to the economy,  the government confirms that the Democrats lie with its own statements and reports. Such arguments are more persuasive to those "pragmatists" who think ideology is utterly irrelevant.

The media will continue to portray the tea party movement as "fringe," even infiltrating and planting their own "racist" subverters. We should not help the media by venting our understandable fear and alarm at the socialists in government. Our frustration with the disconnected "middle" cannot overwhelm our need to truly crush the leftist Democrats in November.